Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Trump Second Term Economic Agenda: First Sixteen Months
A tariff stack rebuilt around Section 232, 301, 122, and 338, an OBBA reconciliation that locks TCJA permanence, a DOGE workforce purge, and a Fed independence stress test rewrite the macro baseline through 2029.
The first sixteen months of the second Trump administration have stacked tariff, fiscal, regulatory, and labor shocks at a pace and scale not seen since the early 1980s. Executive Orders issued between January and April 2025 imposed 25 percent duties on Mexico and Canada under IEEPA, restored 25 percent Section 232 steel and aluminum with...
Territorial Rhetoric and Treaty Reliability: Pricing the 2025 to 2026 Trump Doctrine
Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada, Mexico, the Gulf of America, and Gaza relocation talk are not isolated provocations. They are a coherent signal that the United States now treats sovereign borders, NATO commitments, and 1977-vintage treaties as renegotiable, and capital is starting to charge for it.
Between January 2025 and April 2026 the second Trump administration converted territorial rhetoric into operational pressure: a renewed sovereignty bid for Greenland, a public claim that the United States will take the Panama Canal back, a sustained 51st state framing of Canada, fentanyl-linked cartel designations against Mexico, the Gulf...